Fools and “electability”

jgoodguy

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Fools and “electability”

I deleted this comment on account of foolishness:

Let’s get right to it (aka the $64K question): Who has the BEST chance to beat Trump? Your personal opinion and/or statistically.

The answer is that basically it doesn’t matter. More than anything else, a presidential election is a referendum on the incumbent. The one predictive variable is presidential approval. It’s usually within two points of the final popular vote share. That is directly contradictory to the idea that the opponent’s identity makes a big difference.
 

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Fools and “electability”

I deleted this comment on account of foolishness:

Let’s get right to it (aka the $64K question): Who has the BEST chance to beat Trump? Your personal opinion and/or statistically.

The answer is that basically it doesn’t matter. More than anything else, a presidential election is a referendum on the incumbent. The one predictive variable is presidential approval. It’s usually within two points of the final popular vote share. That is directly contradictory to the idea that the opponent’s identity makes a big difference.
A day is a life time in politics. We have various polls that show Trump being beaten by various Democratic Presidential Candidates but it far to early to know who will win the presidential election.
We don't know how much voter suppression and hacking of electronic voting machines will occur.
No doubt we will remain a bitterly divided country no matter what.
Depending on what happens in the electon perhaps a low intensity. Civil War 2.0 is possible.
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Viper21

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Voter fraud is not proven but voter suppression is far more common.
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There's certainly examples of voter fraud to draw from. I find it odd that, so many people deny it has, & does happen.

Voter suppression is much more subjective.

Here in Virginia, we've had photo ID requirements to vote for awhile now. Coming July 1st, that requirement will no longer exist. The folks in favor of removing the voter ID law claimed, requiring a photo ID to vote, is voter suppression.

The claim is, it restricts disadvantaged folks from voting. The problem with that erroneous claim is, in Virginia, you can obtain a photo ID for voting from the Virginia Dept of Elections, FOR FREE.

Why would anyone not want to protect the integrity of elections..?
 

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There's certainly examples of voter fraud to draw from. I find it odd that, so many people deny it has, & does happen.

Voter suppression is much more subjective.

Here in Virginia, we've had photo ID requirements to vote for awhile now. Coming July 1st, that requirement will no longer exist. The folks in favor of removing the voter ID law claimed, requiring a photo ID to vote, is voter suppression.

The claim is, it restricts disadvantaged folks from voting. The problem with that erroneous claim is, in Virginia, you can obtain a photo ID for voting from the Virginia Dept of Elections, FOR FREE.

Why would anyone not want to protect the integrity of elections..?
In previous SCOTUS cases on this subject very little evidence has been presented of voter fraud. On the other hand voter suppression such has making people in Democratic precincts waiting in long lines vs Republican precincts a very wait are well documented. In the 2004 Presidential Election exit polls which are extremely accurate showed Kerry won Ohio and Virginia which would of won the vote but the Republican Secretary of State of Ohio refused to let US State Department approved foreign observers watch has the vote was counted.
In Wisconsin under then Republican governor Walker DMVs were shut down in minority areas so people could not easily get state IDs.
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Viper21

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In previous SCOTUS cases on this subject very little evidence has been presented of voter fraud.
5 minutes on google, can find numerous examples of actual voter fraud, that has happened recently.

On the other hand voter suppression such has making people in Democratic precincts waiting in long lines vs Republican precincts a very wait are well documented.
Democratic precincts typically are in more urban areas. Obviously, more people = longer wait times. Go to the DMV in an urban area vs. a rural area. The same phenomenon occurs. It is NOT evidence of voter suppression.

In the 2004 Presidential Election exit polls which are extremely accurate showed Kerry won Ohio and Virginia which would of won the vote but the Republican Secretary of State of Ohio refused to let US State Department approved foreign observers watch has the vote was counted.
Not evidence of voter suppression.
 

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5 minutes on google, can find numerous examples of actual voter fraud, that has happened recently.


Democratic precincts typically are in more urban areas. Obviously, more people = longer wait times. Go to the DMV in an urban area vs. a rural area. The same phenomenon occurs. It is NOT evidence of voter suppression.


Not evidence of voter suppression.
When only one or to voting machines in an urban precinct vs more in a Republican suburban precinct that's a problem. Recently a major Republican Party Obrative bragged about voter suppression.
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5fish

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Bold face lie.
No here is the data... Voter I. D. is voter fraud... The right-wing uses voter fraud to push voter suppression laws... http://voterfraudfacts.com/



Individual in-person voter fraud is shown to be rare by many studies, while other types of voter fraud have been more common throughout US history. Some see voter ID laws, which aim to protect against in-person voter fraud, as a modern day poll tax and as a form of voter fraud called “voter suppression“. Voter fraud doesn’t have to be illegal to be considered voter fraud. Voter fraud is anything that tampers with a fair voting process.

Snip...

Although voter fraud is an issue in America, the ways in which voter fraud occur may be different from what you think. On our site we answer questions like, “Does voter fraud exist?”, “How are voter id laws impacting the country?”, “How do the different types of voter fraud affect elections?”, and “Is individual voter fraud a problem in the first place?”



Out of the 197 million votes cast for federal candidates between 2002 and 2005, only 40 voters were indicted for voter fraud. Only 26 of those cases, or about .00000013 percent of the votes cast, resulted in convictions or guilty pleas.





 

Viper21

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There is no voter fraud ...


Liberal groups often claim that known instances of voter fraud are inconsequential when compared to the total number of ballots cast in American elections. However, as the National Commission on Federal Election Reform has stated, the problem “is not the magnitude of voter fraud. In close or disputed elections, and there are many, a small amount of fraud could make the margin of difference.” The U.S. Supreme Court has concurred with this assessment, noting that known instances of fraud “demonstrate that not only is the risk of voter fraud real but that it could affect the outcome of a close election.”

Indeed, recent elections bear this out. In 2015, a city council election in the New Jersey town of Perth Amboy was decided by a mere 10 votes. A judge overturned the election and ordered a new one after it was revealed that at least 13 illegal absentee ballots had been cast. The 2003 mayoral primary in East Chicago, Indiana, was overturned by the state Supreme Court after evidence of widespread fraud was revealed. The new election resulted in a different winner.

An estimated 100,000 fraudulent ballots were cast in a 1982 Chicago election. After a Justice Department investigation, 63 individuals were convicted of voter fraud, including vote buying, impersonation fraud, fictitious voter registrations, phony absentee ballots, and voting by non-citizens.

After an extensive investigation of absentee ballot fraud in a 1994 Greene County, Alabama, election, nine defendants pleaded guilty to voter fraud, and two others were found guilty by a jury.
https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/heritage-explains/voter-fraud

1,259
Proven instances of voter fraud

1,085
Criminal convictions
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud


10 more examples:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/17/no-voter-fraud-isnt-myth-10-cases-where-its-all-to/

But wait, there's more.....

In August, the Justice Department announced the prosecution of 19 foreign nationals for illegally voting in North Carolina. Some of them voted in multiple elections.

Texas State Attorney General Ken Paxton decided to crack down on voter fraud before the midterm elections. So far, he's prosecuted 33 people for 97 counts of voter fraud this year alone. Among the discoveries was a voter fraud ring that had received financial support from the former head of the Texas Democratic Party.

"Yet there are those — mostly Democrats and mainstream journalists — who continue to insist that voter fraud is a myth. The New York Times' Glenn Thrush once declared, for example, that "there is essentially no voter fraud in this country." When shown concrete examples, the response is usually "well, it's not widespread." But that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of elections. You don't need "widespread" voter fraud to change election outcomes, just small-scale efforts targeted on tight or consequential elections"

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/voter-fraud-midterm-elections/

In states around the U.S., major problems with our voter registration systems have been tolerated for years. A 2012 report by the Pew Center on the States found that more than 1.8 million dead people were registered to vote and 2.75 million people were registered in more than one state.

The Pew report found that 24 million registrations were either invalid or inaccurate, making the registration systems vulnerable to fraud. Despite this abysmal record, the Justice Department under President Obama decided it wouldn’t take any action to enforce a federal law that requires states to maintain accurate voter rolls by regularly removing ineligible voters
 

5fish

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Indeed, recent elections bear this out.
Here Heritage Foundation has been caught making fraudulent research... not just on voter fraud... https://www.brennancenter.org/our-w...tions-database-undermines-claims-recent-voter


New York, N.Y. – The Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity relies on a database produced by the Heritage Foundation to justify baseless claims — by President Trump and some of the panel’s members — of rampant voter fraud. But according to an analysis of the database by the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, the numbers in the database reveal exactly the opposite.

Claims that the database contains almost 1,100 proven instances of voter fraud are grossly exaggerated and devoid of context, according to Heritage Fraud Database: An Assessment. It confirms what numerous studies have consistently shown: Voter fraud is vanishingly rare, and impersonating a voter at the polls is less common a phenomenon than being struck by lightning.

“The database includes an assortment of cases, many unrelated or tangentially related, going back decades, with only a handful pertaining to non-citizens voting or impersonation at the polls,” writes the author. “They add up to a molecular fraction of the total votes cast nationwide. Inadvertently, the Heritage Foundation’s database undermines its claim of widespread voter fraud.

A closer examination of the database shows:

  • Among the examples in the Heritage document are a case from 1948 (when Harry S. Truman beat Thomas Dewey) and a case from 1972 (when Richard Nixon defeated George McGovern). Only 105 of its 749 cases came from within the past five years.
  • In reviewing billions of votes cast, the Heritage Foundation identified just 10 cases involving in-person impersonation fraud at the polls (fewer than the number of members on the president’s Commission).
  • The database includes only 41 cases involving non-citizens registering, voting, or attempting to vote over five decades, highlighting the absurdity of President Trump’s claim that millions of non-citizens voted in the 2016 election alone.
  • A vast majority of fraud “examples” cited by the Heritage Foundation would not be addressed by the voter suppression laws its staff supports, including “Election Integrity” Commission member Hans von Spakovsky, a senior legal fellow at Heritage. Von Spakovsky distributed copies of the database at the panel’s first meeting in July.
  • Many cases highlighted in the database show that existing laws and safeguards are already preventing voter fraud — the ineligible voters or individuals engaging in misconduct were discovered and prevented from casting a ballot.
“It’s been clear for months that this Commission is premised on the lie that widespread voter fraud exists in America. This database is the latest attempt by some of the Commission’s members to propagate that lie,” said Rudy Mehrbani, Spitzer fellow and senior counsel in the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program and lead author of the analysis. “A quick dive into Heritage’s database reveals a completely different picture than the top-line talking point suggests, and the consequences to voters could be severe.”

“It is distressing that a Commission whose work could affect Americans’ most fundamental rights is promoting and relying on spin rather than legitimate, accepted, and professionally-reviewed research,” said Wendy Weiser, director of the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program. “It couldn’t be clearer that the Commission is not approaching its charge with an open mind. The primary sources of alleged evidence of widespread fraud are the commissioners themselves.”

“This ‘database’ does not come close to being an actual study of election misconduct on which national policy should be based,” said Michael Waldman, president of the Brennan Center. “It is a grab-bag of cases, few of them recent, many irrelevant to the panel’s work. Waving around a stack of paper does not make it real evidence.”

For more on the president’s “Election Integrity” Commission, visit the Brennan Center’s one-stop-shop resource page here.
 

Viper21

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Here Heritage Foundation has been caught making fraudulent research... not just on voter fraud... https://www.brennancenter.org/our-w...tions-database-undermines-claims-recent-voter


New York, N.Y. – The Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity relies on a database produced by the Heritage Foundation to justify baseless claims — by President Trump and some of the panel’s members — of rampant voter fraud. But according to an analysis of the database by the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, the numbers in the database reveal exactly the opposite.

Claims that the database contains almost 1,100 proven instances of voter fraud are grossly exaggerated and devoid of context, according to Heritage Fraud Database: An Assessment. It confirms what numerous studies have consistently shown: Voter fraud is vanishingly rare, and impersonating a voter at the polls is less common a phenomenon than being struck by lightning.

“The database includes an assortment of cases, many unrelated or tangentially related, going back decades, with only a handful pertaining to non-citizens voting or impersonation at the polls,” writes the author. “They add up to a molecular fraction of the total votes cast nationwide. Inadvertently, the Heritage Foundation’s database undermines its claim of widespread voter fraud.

A closer examination of the database shows:

  • Among the examples in the Heritage document are a case from 1948 (when Harry S. Truman beat Thomas Dewey) and a case from 1972 (when Richard Nixon defeated George McGovern). Only 105 of its 749 cases came from within the past five years.
  • In reviewing billions of votes cast, the Heritage Foundation identified just 10 cases involving in-person impersonation fraud at the polls (fewer than the number of members on the president’s Commission).
  • The database includes only 41 cases involving non-citizens registering, voting, or attempting to vote over five decades, highlighting the absurdity of President Trump’s claim that millions of non-citizens voted in the 2016 election alone.
  • A vast majority of fraud “examples” cited by the Heritage Foundation would not be addressed by the voter suppression laws its staff supports, including “Election Integrity” Commission member Hans von Spakovsky, a senior legal fellow at Heritage. Von Spakovsky distributed copies of the database at the panel’s first meeting in July.
  • Many cases highlighted in the database show that existing laws and safeguards are already preventing voter fraud — the ineligible voters or individuals engaging in misconduct were discovered and prevented from casting a ballot.
“It’s been clear for months that this Commission is premised on the lie that widespread voter fraud exists in America. This database is the latest attempt by some of the Commission’s members to propagate that lie,” said Rudy Mehrbani, Spitzer fellow and senior counsel in the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program and lead author of the analysis. “A quick dive into Heritage’s database reveals a completely different picture than the top-line talking point suggests, and the consequences to voters could be severe.”

“It is distressing that a Commission whose work could affect Americans’ most fundamental rights is promoting and relying on spin rather than legitimate, accepted, and professionally-reviewed research,” said Wendy Weiser, director of the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program. “It couldn’t be clearer that the Commission is not approaching its charge with an open mind. The primary sources of alleged evidence of widespread fraud are the commissioners themselves.”

“This ‘database’ does not come close to being an actual study of election misconduct on which national policy should be based,” said Michael Waldman, president of the Brennan Center. “It is a grab-bag of cases, few of them recent, many irrelevant to the panel’s work. Waving around a stack of paper does not make it real evidence.”

For more on the president’s “Election Integrity” Commission, visit the Brennan Center’s one-stop-shop resource page here.
Bury your head in the sand if you wish. But to say, there is no voter fraud, isn't true. It does exist. There are many verifiable cases, & examples. I've shown a number of them from multiple sources.
 

5fish

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But to say, there is no voter fraud, isn't true. It does exist.
You can chase these Windmills on Rocinante... the right wings trying lies on voter fraud...
 

Kirk's Raider's

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Eliminate voters if another voter has the same name.
Eliminate voters from the rolls is they haven't voted in a while.
Not having enough voting machines in Democratic precincts but plenty in Republican precients.
ID wasn't required when white people were the majority of voters kind of strange that all of a sudden it's now required.
In Georgia just before the last election for governor the Republican Secretary of State who just happened to be running for governor wanted to close three precients for not having access for handicapped people even though he had several years to correct the problem.
Sure elections are free and fair.
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