Red River Campaign: Best/Worst Possible Outcomes?

Joshism

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We all pretty much know how the Red River Campaign went in early 1864. Banks and Porter go up the river with the goal of taking Shreveport, with Steele coming overland from Arkansas. Banks is defeated and retreats. Taylor unsuccessfully attempts to trap him. Some clever engineering saves Porter's fleet then Banks successfully withdraws as well. Steele is delayed and retreats when he learns Banks has been defeated.

1. What is the impact on the war if Banks' army is mostly or totally captured? It's a huge PR nightmare and AJ Smith isn't around to fight Forrest, but does it meaningfully affect the overall war?

2. In a worst case scenario, Porter scuttles his trapped ships (outright capture seems extremely unlikely). The ships are in remote Alexandria - not really an easy place for the Confederates to raise, repair, and reequip them, plus cobble together competent crews. Is it realistic they could be put into CS service in time to cause serious trouble on the Mississippi? Could the Union just effectively bottle them up in the Red River? Would such a defeat ruin Porter's career?

3. Banks defeats Taylor, Steele fights through as well, Confederate efforts to drop the river levels are ineffective (or just don't happen) so Porter is fine, and Shreveport falls to Union forces. Now what? AJ Smith has to leave, as previously agreed. East Texas is close at hand, but Banks and Steele are at the end of a long and tenuous supply line, even with Porter patroling the Red River. Can the Union actually hold these gains and move into Texas? Does it have any real benefit to the war, even politically? Does this success elevate Banks' political career after the war?

Think optimal, but realistic scenarios.
 

5fish

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Can the Union actually hold these gains and move into Texas?
It could hold its gains but no reason to move into Texas. Its a backwater of the war... In truth the Red River Campaign should have been cancel for it added little to non thing to the union war effort...

Does it have any real benefit to the war, even politically?
Only benefit would have been to Banks and the cotton sellers he brought along with him... and to his political career...

success elevate Banks' political career after the war?
Yes, but not enough to challenge Lincoln...
 

5fish

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Lincoln would presumably still be dead.
No, he was shooting for 1864... https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/red-river-campaign

Union Major General Nathaniel P. Banks was the commander of the Department of the Gulf based in New Orleans. Banks was a contender for the Republican nomination for the presidency in 1864. He was a native of Massachusetts and had served as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. He was an ally and confidant of several wealthy New England textile mill owners. A political general with no formal military training, Banks needed a battlefield victory to cement support for his run for the presidency. He outranked every Union general west of the Appalachians.
 

5fish

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It's a huge PR nightmare and AJ Smith isn't around to fight Forrest, but does it meaningfully affect the overall war?
I am guessing you talking about the battle of Tupelo... Like I they say "everyone is replaceable" and another union general would have step up...

Sherman, who was closing in on Atlanta, was irritated Smith had not pressed Forrest at Tupelo, believing he should not have been allowed to escape.[5] If Forrest had been allowed to raid into middle Tennessee prior to the capture of Atlanta, it could have had disastrous consequences for the Union. Although Smith failed to destroy Forrest's Cavalry at Tupelo, he did break its combat effectiveness. Forrest would rally his cavalrymen for more daring raids, but never again would they be able to fight and defeat infantry.
 
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