What If There Are No Swing Voters?

jgoodguy

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What If There Are No Swing Voters?

Politico: “What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong? What if there aren’t really American swing voters—or not enough, anyway, to pick the next president? What if it doesn’t matter much who the Democratic nominee is? What if there is no such thing as ‘the center,’ and the party in power can govern however it wants for two years, because the results of that first midterm are going to be bad regardless? What if the Democrats’ big 41-seat midterm victory in 2018 didn’t happen because candidates focused on health care and kitchen-table issues, but simply because they were running against the party in the White House? What if the outcome in 2020 is pretty much foreordained, too?”

“To the political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, all of that is almost certainly true, and that has made her one of the most intriguing new figures in political forecasting this year.”
 

Kirk's Raider's

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What If There Are No Swing Voters?

Politico: “What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong? What if there aren’t really American swing voters—or not enough, anyway, to pick the next president? What if it doesn’t matter much who the Democratic nominee is? What if there is no such thing as ‘the center,’ and the party in power can govern however it wants for two years, because the results of that first midterm are going to be bad regardless? What if the Democrats’ big 41-seat midterm victory in 2018 didn’t happen because candidates focused on health care and kitchen-table issues, but simply because they were running against the party in the White House? What if the outcome in 2020 is pretty much foreordained, too?”

“To the political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, all of that is almost certainly true, and that has made her one of the most intriguing new figures in political forecasting this year.”
We can't know how that will work out. We just have to wait and see.
If Americans become extremely polarized that will be very interesting.
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5fish

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If Americans become extremely polarized that will be very interesting.
America is polarized and as long as we do not start shooting at each other the Republican party due to demographic trends will shrink away. I want to point out by 2045 the white population will only be 45% of the total population the death of the Republican party to a regional party. The next 3 to 4 elections will be about turning out the base of each party.

Here is a link to a thread about the Stack identity crisis leading to our Polarization...

https://www.jggscivilwartalk.online...ican-civil-war-oversimplified.845/#post-10965
 

Viper21

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America is polarized and as long as we do not start shooting at each other the Republican party due to demographic trends will shrink away.
Keep dreaming. We most definitely are polarized. Turns out the Dems in general, don't like it when Republicans fight back, & don't just stand there, & take their abuse. Wow, what a shocker, a bully, not liking a target that fights back. For most of my life, Republicans just took the abuse. Preferring to ignore, for the most part. Today, we have a leader that gives them the finger, & fights back. It's comical to me anyways, watching the pundits cringe at the sight of our CIC not being a cuckhold to the Dems, & media, as so many before him have.

I want to point out by 2045 the white population will only be 45% of the total population the death of the Republican party to a regional party. The next 3 to 4 elections will be about turning out the base of each party.
More racism from the virtuous left..... nice..!

The next 3-4 elections will be about, saving the Constitution, or not.
Here is a link to a thread about the Stack identity crisis leading to our Polarization...
What's leading to our polarization is simple. One side believes in our Constitution as written, the other doesn't. One side believes in freedom, the other prefers socialism, or worse.

I couldn't imagine, looking another man in the face, & telling him that I deserve the fruits of his labor. Or attempting to dictate to him, how he cannot defend himself, or his family. These are broad statements, & painted with a broad brush so, spare me the nit picking comments. They are presented to show the major differences, in ideology leading to our nationwide, political polarization.

I accept that a certain amount of my contributions to this country (taxes), are going to be spent for programs, & things I find repulsive, or unjust. Where my guts get riled up, is when you start infringing upon rights protected in the Constitution, that so many of my ancestors have bled for. I'm particularly sensitive to the 1st, 2nd, & 4th amendments, all of which are constantly under attack. The majority of these attacks are coming from one side of the political aisle.
 

Kirk's Raider's

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Keep dreaming. We most definitely are polarized. Turns out the Dems in general, don't like it when Republicans fight back, & don't just stand there, & take their abuse. Wow, what a shocker, a bully, not liking a target that fights back. For most of my life, Republicans just took the abuse. Preferring to ignore, for the most part. Today, we have a leader that gives them the finger, & fights back. It's comical to me anyways, watching the pundits cringe at the sight of our CIC not being a cuckhold to the Dems, & media, as so many before him have.


More racism from the virtuous left..... nice..!

The next 3-4 elections will be about, saving the Constitution, or not.

What's leading to our polarization is simple. One side believes in our Constitution as written, the other doesn't. One side believes in freedom, the other prefers socialism, or worse.

I couldn't imagine, looking another man in the face, & telling him that I deserve the fruits of his labor. Or attempting to dictate to him, how he cannot defend himself, or his family. These are broad statements, & painted with a broad brush so, spare me the nit picking comments. They are presented to show the major differences, in ideology leading to our nationwide, political polarization.

I accept that a certain amount of my contributions to this country (taxes), are going to be spent for programs, & things I find repulsive, or unjust. Where my guts get riled up, is when you start infringing upon rights protected in the Constitution, that so many of my ancestors have bled for. I'm particularly sensitive to the 1st, 2nd, & 4th amendments, all of which are constantly under attack. The majority of these attacks are coming from one side of the political aisle.
It's not racism to point out that white people will be a minority by 2050 or do.
It's not racism to point out that there will be major changes in the next few decades. If the Republican Part wants to stay in power it's not going to do so by voter suppression which a key Republican Party operative as admitted to. It's not going to be able to just gerrymander.
The Republican Party is going to have to peel off minority voters from the Democratic Party. Trump did have an add to that effect by bragging that he released "a non violent drug offender I.e. a drug pusher from prison. Republicans used to push for long sentences for drug pushers but it appears now drug pushing is fine.
While the Super Bowel add was the least watched it is a start.
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jgoodguy

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It's not racism to point out that white people will be a minority by 2050 or do.
It's not racism to point out that there will be major changes in the next few decades. If the Republican Part wants to stay in power it's not going to do so by voter suppression which a key Republican Party operative as admitted to. It's not going to be able to just gerrymander.
The Republican Party is going to have to peel off minority voters from the Democratic Party. Trump did have an add to that effect by bragging that he released "a non violent drug offender I.e. a drug pusher from prison. Republicans used to push for long sentences for drug pushers but it appears now drug pushing is fine.
While the Super Bowel add was the least watched it is a start.
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Decline in Conservative Christians will not help either.
 

5fish

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More racism from the virtuous left..... nice..!
No racism here but demographic coming truth.

Baseball, Nascar, Golf, Country Music, Hockey, NRA and the Republic party all have this same demographic truth. They are organizations that are predominately white men and women and have not been able to reach out to non-white American populations to expand their members or fans. In the coming years, they all will have to either downsize or just maybe learn to attract non-white Americans to their organizations or die off. Extinction!

I couldn't imagine, looking another man in the face, & telling him that I deserve the fruits of his labor.
We share all bowls are fuller... (hint what TV show did this quote come from) Sharing something we teach our kids but forget or distingue as adults...

One side believes in freedom, the other prefers socialism, or worse.
We believe we are all in this together and sharing the GDP pie fairly...

I accept that a certain amount of my contributions to this country (taxes), are going to be spent for programs, & things I find repulsive, or unjust.
I know, like the major income cuts for the wealthy over the last 40 years... now Wealthy and Corporate American pay lesser tax rate than the average American.
 

Kirk's Raider's

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What a sad day that will be. I mean, who will get blamed for all the inequity in the country then..?
The handful of billionaire's that own more then the bottom ninety percent of Americans.
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Kirk's Raider's

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I'll never understand the mindset that, demonizes successful people.
Behind every great fortune is a great crime.
If a handful of people dominate the economy eventually the Peasents will rise up and revolt.
Even some millionaires and billionaired get that.
I am all for capitalism but if wealth is to concentrated then we will have a major civil war and it won't be pretty.
Once people have nothing to loose they might as Emilio Zapata said " it's better to die on ones feet then live on ones knees.
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5fish

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I'll never understand the mindset that, demonizes successful people.
Because they are not replay society for their good fortune.

The goal of our society is to make more 6 figure income families not more billionaires.

They do not pay their fair share of the tax burden it's as simple as that. Its not healthy for a society to it wealth pool in to few hands. It reduces opportunity within a society. The economic mobility within a society collapses locking people into a class society.

After earning so many millions of dollars it becomes a point where another is pointless to one life style... It just becomes hoarding... Meaning wealth for wealth sake...
 

Andersonh1

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I'll never understand the mindset that, demonizes successful people.
Envy and/or entitlement. People are unhappy that someone has more than they do. I think it often boils down to nothing more complicated than that.
 

5fish

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I am showing you these European Nations with there slightly higher GDPs but much larger populations provide Universal Healthcare and Universal after High School education and Vasily more social services to their people than our State and Local Governments do. The cry for lower taxes means no services for the middle class and poor and the only group the truly benefits from lower taxes are the wealthiest among us. We the American people are being cheated of services that will make all Americans wealthier and healthier... We are truly under-taxed and served by our Nation for our nation is all about the Hoarding wealthy...

Note I made pretty columns but the computer right justified my columns... I put Russia on here so you can see our Military budget almost as big as Russia's GDP and we are scared of them... I laugh...

I want to look at the GDP of these top European Nations

1
Germany 3,863.344
2
United Kingdom 2,743.586
3
France 2,707.074
4
Italy 1,988.636
5
Russia 1,637.892
6
Spain 1,397.870

I want you to look at the Top States GDP...

1
California 3,018,337
2
Texas 1,818,585
3
New York 1,701,399
4
Florida 1,059,144

The populations of these same nations and countries ...

1
Germany 82milliom
2
United Kingdom 66 million
3
France 67 million
4
Italy 60 million
5
Russia 145 million
6
Spain 46million

1
California 37 million
2
Texas 25 million
3
New York 21 million
4
Florida 19 million

If you have not figured it out, the American people have been cheated by the Republican lower tax whine for decades... @Viper21 , @Andersonh1 , @Kirk's Raider's , @jgoodguy , @Wehrkraftzersetzer , @rittmeister , @O' Be Joyful
 
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Viper21

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Envy and/or entitlement. People are unhappy that someone has more than they do. I think it often boils down to nothing more complicated than that.
Agreed.

I believe the number is approaching 1/2 the country that doesn't pay any federal income tax.

The top 20% of earners, roughly folks making 150,000/yr, pay close to 70% of the federal tax revenues. Yet, it's not enough for some folks.
 

Wehrkraftzersetzer

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swing voters would not be needed (or even thought about) if all votes would count equal
 

Andersonh1

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I am showing you these European Nations with there slightly higher GDPs but much larger populations provide Universal Healthcare and Universal after High School education and Vasily more social services to their people than our State and Local Governments do.
At what cost? How much of what people make do they actually get to keep and have control over? I'd rather have more choice and control of the product of my labor, and less government control. Europe can keep it, as far as I'm concerned.
 

Wehrkraftzersetzer

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At what cost? How much of what people make do they actually get to keep and have control over? I'd rather have more choice and control of the product of my labor, and less government control. Europe can keep it, as far as I'm concerned.
European Healthcare is MUCH less expansive since we don't have Your idiotic law system (Yes Captain James T. Kirk & Partners)
 

5fish

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At what cost? How much of what people make do they actually get to keep and have control over? I'd rather have more choice and control of the product of my labor, and less government control. Europe can keep it, as far as I'm concerned.
You would rather have people go without universal healthcare and higher and trade education for all... You see these states could do it without the federal governments even getting involved... It's not about choice it's about making a better society... and its affordable...
 
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